Oscars Guide | Who Will Win the 76th Academy Awards? Written by: Susan Granger

Moda Mag.com -- With 11 nominations, you're going to hear "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" so often Sunday night that we should abbreviate it to "LOTR" right now. With this final installment in his epic, ambitious trilogy based on the J.R.R. Tolkien books, it's New Zealand writer/director Peter Jackson's year. Denied for "The Fellowship of the Ring," ignored for "The Two Towers,"  Jackson's historic feat of shooting a trio of highly technical films at the same time and releasing them in three consecutive years will finally be recognized by the Academy, as it was honored by the Directors' Guild.  In the 56 years since the Guild began presenting its top honor, the winner has gone on to the Oscar for Best Director all but six times.

      It's also 32 year-old Sofia Coppola's year. For her melancholy "Lost in Translation," she has become the third female director honored with a nomination and the first-ever American woman. The first woman to receive a director nomination was Lina Wertmuller (1976), followed by Jane Campion (1993).  It's been 29 years since Sofia's father, Francis Ford Coppola, won for "The Godfather: Part II."

      Peter Weir's "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" is an outstanding seafaring saga with 10 nominations, while Clint Eastwood's moody "Mystic River," a dark drama of abuse and mystery on Boston's back streets, has six nominations. There's no doubt that "Seabiscuit" was a thoroughbred, but its director, Gary Ross, wasn't nominated, so don't expect a sprint from behind this time. And despite the fact that the gritty Brazilian drama "City of God" is an admirable Portuguese-language film with four nominations in all, Fernando Meirelles stands zero chance to cop the directing honors. (His response when told of his surprise nomination: "Has the Academy gone mad?") MY PREDICTION: "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" for Best Picture and Peter Jackson for Best Director.

      For Best Actress, it's Charlize Theron. Her performance in "Monster" is astonishing. Transforming from a svelte, glamorous stunner to the burly, scruffy Aileen Wuornos, is an acting triumph although, curiously, her prosthetics designer, Toni G, was snubbed in the Make-up category.  But Hollywood loves to see a pretty girl go ugly. Significantly, last year's winner Nicole Kidman was not even nominated for "Cold Mountain" in which her struggling back-country heroine looks far too dewy fresh and glamorous to be believable. On the other hand, watching "Monster" is difficult; aside from Theron's performance, it's a distinctly unsavory, unpleasant movie about a real-life street prostitute and serial killer. Yet lethal ladies have won in the past: Vivien Leigh in "Gone With the Wind," Jane Wyman in "Johnny Belinda," Susan Hayward in "I Want to Live" and Jodie Foster in "The Silence of the Lambs."

      Theron's most formidable competitor is Diane Keaton who makes a popular "comeback" in the delightful comedy "Something's Gotta Give." But Keaton a) has won an Oscar before as "Annie Hall," and b) has done this kind of ditzy, quirky, lovable dame in previous films. ("My initial reaction was disbelief," confessed Keaton when she was told of her nomination.) As a dark horse: Naomi Watts is excellent as the grieving wife and mother in "21 Grams" but it, too, is a gritty, depressing movie, dealing with death. And don't discount Samantha Morton, who is superb as the Irish wife and mother in "In America"; she was previously nominated as supporting actress in Woody Allen's "Sweet and Lowdown." Although she stands little chance to win, 13 year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes from New Zealand is the youngest Best Actress nominee in Oscar's history for her glowing coming-of-age turn as a young Maori who is determined to buck tribal traditions and fulfill her destiny in "Whale Rider." If she wins, she'll become the youngest person to receive a Best Actress Oscar, besting Marlee Matlin, who won for "Children of a Lesser God" (1986) when she was 21. MY PREDICTION: Charlize Theron.

      For Best Actor, it's a three-man race. Sean Penn is nominated as the bereaved dad in "Mystic River," but he delivered yet another indelible performance as a heart-transplant patient in "21 Grams." With this fourth Best Actor nomination, I suspect it's his turn, and I understand the notoriously reclusive, party-shy Penn has promised to attend the Academy Awards. But how important is that? George C. Scott never showed up and he still won. On the other hand, Penn is outspoken and anti-Hollywood, often criticizing past Oscar winners and the Academy.

      If Penn loses, it will be to either "Saturday Night Live" alumn Bill Murray as the disaffected movie star in "Lost in Translation" or Johnny Depp as the eccentric, swashbuckling Captain Jack Sparrow in "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl." Many believe Murray has been owed an Oscar ever since he was overlooked for "Rushmore" (1998), and Depp is the first pirate ever to get an Oscar nomination. But Depp, unexpectedly, just won the Screen Actors Guild Award. Yet that's no Oscar blueprint since, last year, Catherine Zeta-Jones was the only SAG winner to repeat at the Oscars, and the Academy has long held a bias against comedic roles when selecting winners. The last Best Actor winner to star in a comedy was Richard Dreyfuss for "The Goodbye Girl" (1977) and, before that, Lee Marvin in "Cat Ballou" (1965).

      Also this year, Jude Law was nominated for his subtle portrayal of the disillusioned Confederate deserter in "Cold Mountain," as was Ben Kingsley's proud Iranian military officer in the psychological thriller "House of Sand and Fog." Can you believe it's been 21 years since Kingsley won for "Gandhi"? Interesting: at a recent news conference at the Berlin Film Festival, Jude Law admitted that, in his opinion, it's Sean Penn's year. MY PREDICTION: Sean Penn.

      For Best Supporting Actress, it's Renee Zellweger as the gutsy, outspoken farm girl who gives warmth to "Cold Mountain." Nominated last year as Roxie Hart in "Chicago" and the year before for "Bridget Jones's Diary," Zellweger's Oscar is simply overdue. Nominated for "Mystic River," Marcia Gay Harden has already picked up an Oscar in this category for "Pollock" (2000). Iranian-born Shohreh Aghdashloo is an unexpected yet deserving nominee as the sympathetic wife and mother in "House of Sand and Fog," while both Patricia Clarkson in "Pieces of April" and Holly Hunter in "Thirteen" prove that voters take the time to view the screeners sent out by smaller, independent companies. MY PREDICTION: Renee Zellweger.

      For Best Supporting Actor, it should be Tim Robbins as the tortured victim of kidnapping and child-abuse in "Mystic River," unless Academy voters are wary of his political tirades. Alec Baldwin's sporadic career seems back on track with his nod as a sleazy casino boss in "The Cooler" and Japan's Ken Watanabe got a well-deserved nod for the title character in "The Last Samurai." Nominated for "21 Grams," Puerto Rican-born Benico Del Toro won this category three years ago for "Traffic," and Benin-born Djimon Hounsou - who missed the cut six years ago for "Amistad" - is formidable as the mysteriously sullen neighbor in the Irish immigrant story, "In America." MY PREDICTION: Tim Robbins.

      A scan of the diverse nominees confirms, once again, that film is an art form that belongs to the entire world, not just to America and Europe. The power, joy and influence movies can generate deeply touches us all. And if you're curious why none of the "LOTR" actors received nominations, consider this: the cast was immense. If you compare the Screen Actors Guild ensemble lists, you'll discover that "Mystic River" and "Seabiscuit" feature six actors. "In America" has five actors listed in their ensemble. "LOTR" has 19 actors, and it's incredibly difficult to whittle down such a large number into a few acting nominations. As Gandalf wisely observes, "This is no place for a hobbit." But if the Academy gave an award to the best ensemble - as the Golden Globes does - "LOTR" would win easily.

      In the Best Documentary Film category, there's been a change in Academy rules that mandates all documentaries must be commercially released in order to qualify. "Capturing the Friedmans" examines a Long Island family caught in a sex-crimes scandal; "Balseros" follows the fate of a group of 'boat people' who fled Cuba; Nathaniel Kahn's "My Architect" reflects on the life of his father, Louis Kahn; "The Weather Underground" traces 1960s misplaced idealism; and "The Fog of War" examines Robert McNamara's role in shaping America's foreign policy. The popularity of previous choices - like "Bowling for Columbine," "Spellbound" and "Winged Migration" - indicates increasing audience sophistication and interest in true stories that are told within the complexity of real life. MY PREDICTION: "The Fog of War"

      For Best Foreign Language Film, due to odd Academy rules, "City of God" was not even nominated even though Fernando Meirelles received a Best Director nod. Nor was Siddiq Barmak's  "Osama" from Afghanistan, although it won a Golden Globe. Nods for Canadian director Denys Ardand's "The Barbarian Invasions" and the Czech Republic's Ondrej Trogan's "Zelary" were expected. But Denmark's "Twin Sisters," Sweden's "Evil" and Japan's "The Twilight Samurai" were surprises; none have been shown in the United States yet.  MY PREDICTION: "The Barbarian Invasions"

      Another shocker was the elimination of "LOTR" from Best Cinematography, which pits "Master and Commander" against "Girl with a Pearl Earring," "City of God," "Cold Mountain," and "Seabiscuit." Living up to its long-shot namesake, "Seabiscuit" won the American Society of Cinematographers' top honor so MY PREDICTION: "Master and Commander"

      One of this year's most intriguing races is between "Finding Nemo" and "The Triplets of Belleville" for the Best Animated Feature. While "Nemo" is the top-grossing film of 2003, the charming French cartoon has captured many hearts. "Nemo" represents computer technology, while "Triplets" utilizes traditional drawings. And there's added tension since Pixar, the production company that made "Nemo," and Disney, its distributor, have severed ties. MY PREDICTION: "Finding Nemo"

      For the Best Original Screenplay, it's between "Lost in Translation" and "In America" with due respect to "The Barbarian Invasions," "Dirty Pretty Things" and "Finding Nemo." MY PREDICTION: Sofia Coppola for "Lost in Translation."

      For Best Adapted Screenplay, will it be "American Splendor," "City of God," "LOTR," "Mystic River" or Seabiscuit"? In the past 12 years, eight of the Writers Guild adapted screenplay winners and seven of its original screenplay winners have gone on to Oscar glory, so despite my preference for "Mystic River": MY PREDICTION: "American Splendor"

      The most unusual change is within the Academy itself. Last year, for example, "LOTR" was declared ineligible by both the Music branch - for Original Score - and the Make-up branch for Make-up. The Music branch said that not enough of the "The Two Towers" score was original and it would be too difficult for voters to realize the difference. Similarly, the Make-up branch said that because "The Two Towers" was filmed simultaneously with "The Fellowship of the Ring," it used the same make-up effects and, therefore, was ineligible. Somehow, for whatever reason, the Academy reversed its rules for "LOTR." For Best Make-Up, Best Original Score, Best Song, Best Sound, Best Costumes and Best Editing, MY PREDICTION: "LOTR"

      For Best Visual Effects, voters chose among the Gollum, Hulk, Shelob, Tink, Mystique & Nightcrawler, the pirate Barbossa and a liquid-metal Terminator. But the Gollum is, arguably, the best digital character ever created for film. Add to that a stampeding herd of Mumakils - the giant elephantine creatures in the Battle of Pelennor Fields - 200,000 mostly digital Orcs and a cavalry of 20,000 mostly digital horses and men that fight each other through 180 shots, until a diaphanous "army of the dead" ends the battle. MY PREDICTION: "LOTR."

      If it's a "LOTR" sweep, then "Girl With a Pearl Earring" will be denied a deserved victory in Best Art Direction, a highly competitive category. MY PREDICTION: "LOTR."

      Insofar as Sound Editing and Mixing, Richard King and his crew on "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" made it a point of pride not to rely on the standard collection of movie-ready sounds, using their ingenuity to create the screaming cannon fire during the extended battle scenes. MY PREDICTION: "Master and Commander"

      For Best Live Action Short, MY PREDICTION: "Two Soldiers." 
For Best Animated Short, MY PREDICTION: "Destino." For Best Documentary Short Subject, MY PREDICTION: "Ferry Tales."

      If you haven't seen the nominated films yet, they're at local theaters or in the video store ("Lost in Translation," "Seabiscuit," "Finding Nemo," "Pirates of the Caribbean"). Peter Jackson has promised that the theatrical DVD/video version of "LOTR" will arrive in May or June with an extended Director's cut due in November. And, finally, as you're watching the Academy Awards, rooting for your favorites, just remember that Greta Garbo never won an Oscar, nor did Richard Burton.

-- Susan Granger, Moda Mag.com